With all of the hype surrounding the pending Bitcoin ETF, combined with widespread expectations of a $50,000 price, it raises the question, are markets overhyping ETFs and their ability to push prices higher? One counter to this argues that the market is patiently waiting to see if a Bitcoin ETF is approved first before the long-awaited pump. However, Blomberg Intelligence analysts put the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval at 90%, making the 11% rally over the past month seem a little less impressive.
Looking at the Bitcoin Prophet Forecast below, we note that the Bitcoin price has been unable to break through the $44,713 to $44,963 resistance zone. Despite the great Bitcoin ETF expectations, the price has also not surpassed the $47,445 closing price of March 29, 2022. Of note is the fact that the forecasted price for Bitcoin is closer to $40,000 than $44,000. While Bitcoin price stayed above the upper bound of the Prophet Forecast for most of December, it seems likely that price will regress toward the mean, eventually pushing below $40,000 to $38,000 or below.
Could all of the above be wrong? Of course, it could. Nothing is guaranteed. However, with all of the hype over a pending Bitcoin ETF, and expectations of a $50,000 Bitcoin price, it is worth remembering that markets are two-sided, and often, when sentiment moves too far in one direction, price has a way of moving in the opposite direction. The bigger picture from the forecast is that price looks to be trending higher over time. While crypto journalism and influencers seem to always point to a single news item to explain every price movement, in reality, price movements occur for a variety of reasons reflecting mass psychology and deep cycles.
If you are a Bitcoin Maximalist, then a price dip offers you another chance to buy at a better price. If you're a trader, a dip offers you the opportunity to short the market or buy back in at a more favorable price. At Stonksmaster, we don't have a horse in this race. We aren't pro or anti-assets. Rather, we are for being informed and ready for whatever price movements are next. We are providing a neutral source of price information and levels that you can combine with your analysis to check your work and come to your conclusions.
We look forward to your feedback and hope that this information is of value to you. If you did receive value, please let us know. Better yet, if you found this information valuable, please share it with others and consider subscribing to our Substack subscription box seen below this post.
