Are Bitcoin Price Expectations Too High?

The Bitcoin price has been on a tear since hitting a low of about $15,200.00 in November of 2022. Given the nearly  300% move off the low, are expectations for the short-to-medium-term too high? A few days ago, I addressed the issue of price.

I asked in a few Facebook groups a week or two ago if they thought Bitcoin would reach $50,000 or $25,000 next. A few people took the question almost as an attack on Bitcoin itself. Mass psychology is an interesting thing.

I don't know the answer to my question, but it's looking increasingly like the Bitcoin price is facing headwinds around the $43,200.00 level. 

If I had to, I'd bet on the Bitcoin price to edge back within the uncertainty interval in the chart below. 

There are a couple of quick and dirty ways I use to do an approximate forecast of the Bitcoin price. The first is based on Euler's number (not exact).

From the Bitcoin low of $15,200:

$15,200 * 2.72 = $41,344. At that point, it would be reasonable to expect the price to retrace. Price already moved well past that.

The second approximation is to multiply the low price by 3.16 (a slight modification of Pi).

$15,200 * 3.16 = $48,032. Price hasn't reached that level yet, and in my opinion, doesn't look like it will yet before reversing lower.

Just for fun, we can split the difference between the two targets.

$48,032 + $41,344 = $89,376 / 2 = $44,688.

The 52-week-high price of Bitcoin according to Yahoo Finance was $44,705.52, a difference of $17.52 from the recent high. I'd say that is close enough to the rough forecast, and we're due for a reversal. 

With expectations of Bitcoin breaking the $50,000.00 level, it might be a good thing for the price to retrace to the $35,713 to $35,963 zone seen below. Also of note is the $44,713 to $44,963 zone of resistance above the current price. Bitcoin, thus far, has only reached $44,705.52. This zone aligns nicely with where the Bitcoin price started to decline sharply in April of 2022. That's a pretty nice confluence of both easy-to-see visual chart elements and not-so-easy-to-see zones of resistance that may not be readily apparent just by glancing at the price chart.

Despite the anticipation of a Bitcoin ETF, and the pending Bitcoin Halving, there isn't necessarily any event left to push prices higher that hasn't already been anticipated. For now, short of the Bitcoin price roaring past the $44,713 to $44,963 zone of resistance, it might be wise to take a deep breath and see if the market pauses to test previous support from the $35,713 to $35,963 zone down to $31,213 to $31,463. While somewhere near the $35,000 to $36,000 range seems a reasonable re-test, Bitcoin isn't always as reasonable as your friendly analyst anticpates.